As we close out 2025, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Canadian housing markets continue to adjust to evolving economic conditions. Mortgage rates have stabilized, sales activity has shifted, and both buyers and sellers are navigating a market that remains balanced but distinctly different from the rapid price growth seen in recent years.
In this update, we break down the latest TRREB statistics for the GTA, CREA national data, and the most recent Bank of Canada interest-rate decision, explaining what these trends mean for today’s homebuyers and home sellers.
Greater Toronto Area – TRREB November 2025 Stats
According to the latest TRREB Market Watch:
- Sales activity: 5,010 homes sold through TRREB’s MLS® System in November 2025, down roughly 15.8% year-over-year. Toronto Regional Real Estate Board
- Benchmark & average prices:
- The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was down approximately 5.8% compared to last year.
- The average selling price was about $1,039,458, reflecting a 6%+ year-over-year decline. Toronto Regional Real Estate Board
These figures reflect a market that has shifted from seller-driven conditions to a more balanced, buyer-friendly environment with greater negotiating power and more choices for buyers compared to the peak years of 2021–22.
Even with softer year-over-year numbers, many markets across the GTA are seeing month-to-month stabilization, where price declines have slowed and buyers have more room to negotiate.
Canadian Housing Market – CREA National Snapshot
Nationally, CREA’s latest data shows a broader picture of resale activity across Canada:
- Sales trend: National home sales in November were slightly below year-ago levels but relatively steady compared to the summer months. CREA
- National HPI & prices: The MLS® Home Price Index at the national level was down around 3.7% year-over-year, and average home prices were down roughly 2% year-over-year. CREA
In many markets outside the GTA, this pattern points to softening prices alongside steady demand — a combination that can benefit buyers looking for options, while still presenting opportunities for sellers in the right price range.
Bank of Canada – Latest Rate Decision
On December 10, 2025, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%, after a series of rate reductions earlier in the year. Bank of Canada
This decision reflected a backdrop where inflation has remained near the Bank’s 2% target and economic growth has been moderate — strong enough to avoid recession but not so strong as to fuel rampant price increases. Bank of Canada
What this means:
- Mortgage affordability: Lower policy rates earlier in 2025 and the hold at current levels have helped reduce borrowing costs compared with the high-rate environment of 2023–24. That can improve affordability for buyers and support demand. Bank of Canada
- Variable vs. fixed implications: Variable-rate mortgage holders are likely benefiting from lower rates already in place, while those with fixed terms benefit as bond yields (which influence fixed mortgage pricing) adjust to this interest-rate environment. RBC Royal Bank
- Forward expectations: With rates now stabilizing, many prospective buyers and sellers are looking to early 2026 for clearer direction on whether the economy — and housing market — will strengthen further.
What These Trends Mean for Buyers and Sellers
For Buyers
- More negotiating power: With sales and prices softer than in previous years, buyers are often in a stronger position to negotiate price and conditions than during the peak of the pandemic market.
- Improved affordability: Stabilized rates, lower than 2023 peaks, help reduce monthly carrying costs, especially for buyers who qualify for fixed-rate terms in this rate environment.
- Inventory depth: While Spring remains the busiest season, current inventory levels give buyers more choices, especially in balanced markets where pricing aligns with market realities.
For Sellers
- Pricing precision matters: In a balanced market, accurately pricing your home to reflect current conditions is critical to attracting qualified buyers and achieving desired outcomes.
- Demand exists: Serious buyers continue to engage — particularly those motivated by life changes or investment goals — but price sensitivity and economic confidence remain key factors.
- Preparation is essential: Homes that show well, are staged effectively, and are marketed with compelling positioning tend to outperform in length of time on market and sale price relative to list.
Looking Ahead
Heading into 2026, several factors will shape the market:
- Interest‐rate expectations post-January Bank of Canada update
- Economic confidence and employment trends
- Seasonal spring market dynamics
While the winter months are traditionally quieter, now is an excellent time to start planning your spring real-estate strategy. Whether you’re buying, selling, or investing, understanding your local micro-market is essential — and I’m here to help.
If you’d like a custom stat breakdown for your specific area (e.g., neighbourhood average prices, sales trends, days on market, supply levels), just reach out — I’ll prepare it for you.
~Natacha Jamshidi