Why January 2026 is Great for Sellers

Why January 2026 Might Be Surprisingly Strong for Sellers

Most homeowners assume the only “good time” to sell is spring. Yet leading forecasts for Canada’s housing market point to 2026 as a rebound year for sales and a return to modest price growth after a choppy 2024–2025.

That makes early 2026 – including January – a strategic time to hit the market before everyone else does.

Importantly: as of December 2025, much of this is based on forecasts and early data, not hindsight. But those forecasts are coming from credible sources like CREA, CMHC, Re/Max, RBC, and TD.

Let’s unpack what they’re saying.

1. Where We’re Ending 2025: A Softer Market With Pent-Up Demand

2025: Slower, more cautious – especially in Ontario

The Canadian Real Estate A ssociation (CREA) now expects about 473,000 home sales in 2025, a 1.1% decline from 2024, after downgrading its forecast in October due to tariff-related economic uncertainty.

They also project small declines in the national average price in 2025, with the biggest drags in expensive provinces like Ontario and B.C.

Independent breakdowns for Ontario show the same pattern:

The OREA average home price in Ontario in September 2025 was about $828,900, down 2.9% year-over-year.
In the GTA, TRREB’s benchmark price in October 2025 was about 5% lower than a year earlier, with the average selling price at roughly $1.05M.

TRREB itself describes the GTA as a market with more choice and improved affordability for buyers: October 2025 sales were down 9.5% year-over-year, while new listings rose 22%, giving buyers more leverage.

In other words: late 2025 still feels like a buyer-tilted or balanced market in many parts of Ontario and Canada.

But sales momentum has quietly turned positive

Even in this softer environment, transaction volumes have started to tick up:

CREA reports that national home sales rose 0.9% in October 2025 versus September, marking six monthly increases in the last seven months.
CREA’s senior economist Shaun Cathcart notes that, with rates now near “stimulative” territory, housing markets are expected to “become more active heading into 2026,” even though economic uncertainty will keep things from overheating.

So we’re ending 2025 with:

Softer prices (especially in Ontario and B.C.)
More listings and more negotiating room for buyers
But also steady, growing sales momentum and early signs of a recovery driven by cheaper borrowing costs

That’s classic pent-up demand: buyers have been cautious, but they haven’t disappeared.

2. What the Experts Expect in 2026

Multiple independent forecasts are now pointing to a rebound in sales and modest price growth in 2026.

CREA: Sales rebound and moderate price increase

CREA’s latest quarterly forecast calls for:

2026 home sales up about 7.7%, to just over 509,000 transactions – the highest level since 2021, though still below the peak and slightly under the 10-year average.
National average prices moving higher again in 2026, recovering from the small decline projected for 2025.

That combination – more transactions and gently rising prices – is exactly the kind of environment where well-positioned sellers can do very well.

CMHC: 2025 dip, 2026 recovery

CMHC’s Summer 2025 Housing Market Outlook expects Canadian average home prices to fall around 2% in 2025, with bigger declines in Ontario and B.C., but “a recovery in 2026 as economic fundamentals and confidence improve.”

Their national outlook through 2027 calls for:

Improving economic growth
Lower mortgage rates
Sales and prices gradually recovering in 2026–2027, even if still below peak levels in the most expensive markets.

Re/Max: Buyers coming back, sales up in 2026

Re/Max’s newly released 2026 Canadian Housing Market Outlook is also cautiously optimistic: They project national home sales to increase about 3.4% in 2026, after a “roller-coaster” 2025.

They project national home sales to increase about 3.4% in 2026, after a “roller-coaster” 2025.
Their detailed outlook suggests average residential prices will rise 3–5% in many markets, with single-detached and semi-detached homes continuing to drive demand.

Re/Max emphasizes the role of “strong demand among potential homebuyers and built-up inventory” in setting the stage for a rebound – meaning there are plenty of people ready to buy if they see the right property at the right price.

RBC & TD: A busier, but still disciplined, 2026

RBC Economics projects a 7.9% rebound in home resales in 2026, to roughly 504,000 units, though still below pre-pandemic historic averages. They caution that affordability challenges and a fragile labour market will keep the recovery “tempered,” especially in Ontario and B.C.

TD Economics expects about a 5% national price advance in 2026, describing conditions as likely to stay “roughly in balanced territory” rather than a runaway boom.

Translation: 2026 isn’t forecast to be a frenzy – but it is forecast to be busier and slightly stronger on prices than 2025, which is very relevant for anyone thinking of listing early in the year.

3. The Interest-Rate Story: Cheaper Borrowing, Stable Through 2026

The biggest change supporting buyers – and therefore helping sellers – is the drop in interest rates over 2024–2025.

On October 29, 2025, the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate to 2.25%, the latest in a series of reductions from the peak levels seen in 2023.
Rate trackers and broker forecasts now expect the BoC policy rate to stay around 2.25% through most or all of 2026, rather than shooting back up.
As of late 2025, some lenders are advertising 5-year fixed mortgage rates around the high-3% to low-4% range for well-qualified borrowers – significantly lower than the 5–6% rates many buyers faced in 2023.

Major banks and mortgage experts underline that rate cuts flow through into lower borrowing costs, improving monthly affordability and encouraging more buyers to step back into the market.

For sellers, this matters because:

More buyers qualify for the price range you’re in.
Buyers who were sidelined in 2023–24 are now reconsidering moves in 2026.
Lower carrying costs make it easier for move-up buyers to sell and buy in the same market.

4. So Why January 2026 in Particular?

If 2026 is likely to be better than 2025 overall, January is your early-bird opportunity.

4.1 You get a head start on the spring surge

Predictions from CREA, Re/Max, RBC and TD all point to busier markets in 2026. As more buyers return, more homeowners will also decide to list.

If you wait until April or May, you’re competing with everyone else who had the same idea.

If you list in January or early February 2026, you can:

Hit the market before inventory peaks
Stand out to buyers who have been watching listings all winter
Benefit from improving buyer sentiment as rate cuts finally “feel real” in their approval numbers

We’ve already seen a version of this pattern: in January 2025, GTA home sales jumped 10% month-over-month after a weak December, even though overall conditions were still cautious.

That shows winter isn’t automatically a dead zone – when buyers sense a turning point, they do come out.

4.2 Pent-up demand + slower new construction = more focus on resale homes

On the supply side, CMHC’s Fall 2025 Housing Supply Report notes that combined housing starts in key markets are expected to fall below 2024 levels, and builder expectations for pre-construction sales remain near historic lows.

That implies:

Fewer new-build units hitting the market in the near term
More buyers forced to shop the resale market – exactly where your home sits
A tighter supply picture down the road, even if resale listings are currently elevated

Layer that onto pent-up demand from two slower years (2024–25), and January 2026 starts to look like an attractive “release valve” moment where serious buyers begin acting before competition heats up further.

4.3 Buyers have clarity – and urgency

By January 2026, several things that were fuzzy in 2024–25 will be clearer:

Interest rates appear to have stabilized near the bottom of this cycle, rather than bouncing.
Forecasts are converging on “modest growth, not a crash” – CREA, CMHC, RBC, TD and Re/Max all see some version of a cautious rebound rather than a new price spike or collapse.

That mix often creates buyer urgency:

“If prices are likely to drift up a bit and rates might start nudging higher in 2027, maybe we should buy sooner rather than later.”

Sellers who are already on the market in January are positioned to capture that mindset.

5. Which Sellers Stand to Benefit Most?

Not every property will perform the same way, but the data and forecasts point to some clear winners.

Ground-oriented homes in family areas

CMHC expects a slight recovery in demand for ground-oriented homes (detached, semis, row homes), especially more affordable townhomes and family-friendly houses, compared with softer demand for high-priced condos.

Re/Max’s outlook echoes this, highlighting continued strength in single-detached and semi-detached homes across many Canadian markets.

If you own:

A detached or semi-detached home in a suburban or rural area
A townhouse with parking and outdoor space
A move-in ready family home near schools, parks, or transit

…January 2026 could be a strong moment to list, especially in communities where prices cooled in 2025 but long-term demand is still healthy.

Well-presented, realistically priced listings

Forecasters also agree on one key point: affordability is still stretched, especially in Ontario and B.C.

That means buyers will be choosy. Sellers who win in January 2026 will be those who:

Price according to late-2025 comparable sales, not 2022 peak prices
Invest in staging, repairs, and professional photos
Offer flexible closing dates to attract buyers with renewals or relocations looming

In a cautious-but-rebounding market, the best-prepared homes grab the best offers.

6. How to Use December 2025 to Get “January-Ready”

If you’re even considering a January 2026 sale, December is your secret weapon.

Here’s how to use it:

Get a data-driven valuation
Ask your agent for a comparative market analysis that reflects Q4 2025 sales, not last year’s headlines. This should factor in the recent softening and what buyers are actually paying today.
Tackle strategic improvements
- Fresh, neutral paint where needed
- Minor repairs (leaky faucets, tired caulking, broken fixtures)
- Simple curb appeal updates (lighting, front door touch-ups, clean pathways)
Plan staging and photography early
Book professional photos and/or virtual tours before everyone rushes to list in March and April. Winter light can actually showcase warm interiors beautifully when done well.
Clarify your own numbers
With rates having dropped, talk to your mortgage professional about:
- Penalties (if any)
- Porting options
- What you could afford as a next purchase in the new rate environment
Set a realistic pricing and timing strategy
Work with your agent to decide:
- Whether to list in mid–late January (often a sweet spot after the holidays, before the spring surge)
- A pricing strategy that balances current competition with forecasts for a busier year

7. The Bottom Line: January 2026 Is Worth a Serious Look

Putting it all together:

2025 has been softer, especially in Ontario and B.C., but sales momentum has quietly turned positive as rates have fallen.
Major forecasters – CREA, CMHC, Re/Max, RBC, TD – all see 2026 as a rebound year with more sales and generally modest price growth, not a free-fall.
Interest rates have dropped to around 2.25% on the BoC policy side and are expected to stay low into 2026, making mortgages more manageable for buyers.

New construction is slowing, pushing more demand into the resale market where your home sits.

In that context, January 2026 isn’t just “after the holidays” – it’s potentially your chance to:

Catch returning buyers before the spring listing wave
Take advantage of improving sentiment and cheaper borrowing
Sell into a market that’s stabilizing and slowly recovering, rather than still adjusting

If you’re thinking about a move in 2026, don’t automatically write off January.
Used strategically, it might be one of the quietly strongest months you have.